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Whereas Novo Nordisk ( NVO ) and Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is more likely to lead the weight problems drug market over the following decade, opponents corresponding to Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) might quickly have a snack with them lunch, a state of affairs that has not but factored into the inventory, in response to a Morningstar report.
“We count on that new therapies launched in 2026 by corporations together with Amgen and Pfizer might develop to about one-quarter of the market by 2032,” Morningstar stated.
Morningstar added that it sees valuations for Novo Nordisk and Lilly as “wealthy,” with traders appreciating the large market alternative within the weight problems market “however leaving little room for brand new entrants.” The analysis agency added that opponents corresponding to Amgen and Pfizer will seize as much as a 3rd of the worldwide anti-obesity market inside a decade.
Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, also called semaglutide, has been grabbing headlines for months for its capability to shed kilos. The product, which belongs to a category of medicine referred to as GLP-1 agonists, acquired FDA approval for weight reduction in 2021. An earlier model of the drug was authorised in 2017 to deal with diabetes underneath the model title Ozempic.
Eli Lilly can be set to enter the sport with the authorised GLP-1 agonist Mounjaro, also called tirezepatide. A latest examine, already authorised for diabetes, confirmed that Mounjaro could also be much more efficient than Wegovy in serving to sufferers lose additional kilos. Lilly is presently initiating a head-to-head trial between Wegovy and Mounjaro and will launch an weight problems product by the tip of the 12 months.
Amgen and Pfizer are additionally creating medication. Earlier this 12 months, Amgen deliberate to start Section 2 trials of its anti-obesity compound AMG-133, which incorporates a GLP-1 agonist. Pfizer’s proposal, a GLP-1R agonist known as danuglipron, is presently in Section 2 testing for weight problems and diabetes.
Elevated competitors within the weight problems drug enviornment is more likely to drive down costs, which might in the end improve demand, particularly if the medication are lined by insurance coverage.
MorningStar estimates that the common world value of a GLP-1 remedy will peak at $5,400 in 2024, however then decline as extra merchandise enter the market to $2,800 by 2032. Within the U.S., in response to Morningstar, the value will drop from about $8,000 to about $4,000, in response to its report.
General, Morningstar estimates the potential dimension of the anti-obesity market to be roughly $60 billion by 2032, with roughly 21 million folks worldwide taking GLP-1 merchandise.
The analysis agency estimates that Lilly will ultimately supplant Novo Nordisk because the market chief by 2032, with about 40% of the market pushed by gross sales of not solely Mounjaro however two different medication in growth. Novo Nordisk will obtain one other 36% from gross sales of Wegovy and associated semaglutide merchandise. Amgen is anticipated to take 4%, Pfizer 3% and the remaining 17% break up between different bidders.
The mixed marketplace for GLP-1 medication to deal with weight problems and diabetes is even bigger, with Morningstar estimating gross sales of at the least $90 billion by 2030. By 2032, the analysis agency estimates that each Novo Nordisk and Lilly can have gross sales of about $45 billion. apiece from the medication, with Pfizer getting $4 billion and Amgen $3 billion.
Nonetheless, the scenario might change considerably in 2032, when Novo Nordisk is scheduled to lose patent safety for semaglutide, opening the door to cheaper generic competitors.
Extra about GLP-1 medication:
Morgan Stanley believes that weight reduction medication will have an effect on Medtech extra broadly
Pfizer: New oral weight-loss remedy could possibly be a game-changer
Pfizer inventory does not but characterize blockbuster weight problems drug potential – Cantor
Novo Nordisk advantages as examine reveals cardiovascular advantages of anti-obesity drug
