Ought to I purchase lithium shares in my Shares and Shares ISA in 2024?

The demand for lithium is growing considerably as electrical autos (EVs) powered by lithium-ion batteries go mainstream throughout the globe. This seems to be like one of many largest tendencies of this century. So ought to I be investing in lithium miners inside my Shares and Shares ISA subsequent 12 months?

The bull case

The case for proudly owning lithium shares boils right down to the vitality transition. This seismic shift would require the large-scale deployment of unpolluted vitality applied sciences, and lithium-ion batteries are important for storing vitality generated from renewable sources equivalent to photo voltaic and wind.

Moreover, there’s the unstoppable rise of EVs. In keeping with Bloomberg, there could possibly be as many as 700m EVs globally by 2040, up from 27m on the finish of 2022.

Information from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence suggests the world will want greater than 20 occasions the quantity of lithium mined in 2021 to satisfy demand by 2050.

The bear case

These projections make me need to load up on lithium shares proper now! Nevertheless, there are some issues to contemplate.

First, after hovering to all-time highs final 12 months, lithium costs collapsed in 2023. This was as a consequence of a provide glut mixed with larger rates of interest negatively impacting demand for brand new EVs.

This inherent cyclicality is unavoidable when investing in lithium producers. They’ve little or no management over the worth of the commodity, so their earnings (and subsequently dividends and share costs) can swing wildly from one 12 months to the subsequent.

For instance, in Q3 2023, Chilean lithium large Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (or SQM) reported a forty five% year-on-year fall in income for lithium and derivatives.

Subsequent, I’d spotlight political threat, particularly in Chile, which has the world’s largest reserves of lithium.

The Chilean authorities needs to create a nationwide firm that calls the pictures in partnership with miners. Experiences counsel SQM might even lose its operations as soon as its contract expires in 2030.

To me, this muddies the waters and presents vital threat.

Lastly, there’s all the time the likelihood {that a} new know-how breakthrough reduces long-term demand for lithium.

UK shares

Whereas the largest pureplays are listed overseas, there are some lithium producers listed within the UK.

Under are three standard ones that is perhaps price contemplating, although all of them include their very own particular person dangers. I definitely wouldn’t be backing up the truck.

Security in numbers

Talking personally, I don’t have the time or inclination to carefully monitor political developments in Chile or West Africa. And that is clearly what I’d should do if I used to be invested in a lithium miner there.

But it is a large potential progress market, so I don’t need my ISA to overlook out, particularly as I anticipate lithium costs to development larger over time as world demand surges.

So, I’m comfortable to get this publicity from BlackRock World Mining Belief, which manages a diversified world mining portfolio. The belief faces the identical cyclicality points as all miners, however I choose its security in numbers.

It has Rio Tinto as a high holding. The FTSE 100 miner, already an iron ore large, is dedicated to considerably increasing its lithium operations.