Community economist Timothy Peterson warns that if the US Federal Reserve holds off on charge cuts in 2025, it might trigger a broader market downturn, probably dragging Bitcoin again towards $70,000.
“What it wants is a set off. I feel that set off could also be so simple as the Fed not slicing charges in any respect this yr,” Peterson mentioned in a March 8 X put up. Peterson’s remark comes only a day after Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell reiterated that he is in no hurry to regulate rates of interest.
Fed charge reduce delay could spark bear market
“We don’t must be in a rush and are well-positioned to attend for higher readability,” Powell mentioned in a speech in New York on March 7.
Supply: Timothy Peterson
Peterson, who’s the creator of the paper “Metcalfe’s Legislation as a Mannequin for Bitcoin’s Worth,” estimated how low the Nasdaq may fall to foretell Bitcoin’s (BTC) potential backside in “the following bear market.”
Utilizing Peterson’s Nasdaq lowest worth ahead mannequin, Peterson estimated that the underside would take about seven months to kind, with the Nasdaq dropping 17% over the interval.
Making use of a “1.9” occasions multiplier to that quantity for Bitcoin’s decline, he estimated a 33% decline in Bitcoin, bringing it right down to $57,000 from its present worth at publication, $86,199, in line with CoinMarketCap knowledge.
Supply: Timothy Peterson
Nonetheless, he mentioned Bitcoin doubtless received’t drop that far, anticipating a backside nearer to the low $70,000 vary primarily based on historic developments from 2022.
“Merchants and opportunists hover over Bitcoin like vultures,” he mentioned, explaining that when the market expects Bitcoin to hit $57,000, “it received’t get there as a result of there are all the time some traders who step in as a result of the worth is ‘low sufficient.”
Bitcoin’s 2022 low didn’t drop as anticipated
“I keep in mind in 2022 when everybody mentioned the underside could be $12k. It solely went to $16k, 25% larger than anticipated,” he mentioned earlier than declaring that the 25% improve from $57,000 is $71,000.
The final time Bitcoin traded on the $71,000 worth stage was on Nov. 6, after Donald Trump received the US election, earlier than rallying for a month and reaching $100,000 by Dec. 5.
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In January 2025, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes echoed the same worth prediction.
“I’m calling for a $70k to $75k correction in BTC a mini monetary disaster, and a resumption of cash printing that can ship us to $250k by the top of the yr,” Hayes mentioned in a Jan. 27 X put up.
In December 2024, crypto mining agency Blockware Options mentioned Bitcoin’s “bear case” for 2025 could be $150,000, assuming the Federal Reserve reverses course on rate of interest cuts.
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