The contrasting performances of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) within the first quarter led to divergent outlooks within the second quarter, Constancy Digital Belongings stated in an April 28 report.
Bitcoin ended the primary quarter buying and selling close to $82,560, declining by over 20% from its December 2024 all-time excessive of $108,000. Nonetheless, the flagship crypto maintained sturdy on-chain fundamentals.
In the meantime, technical weaknesses and decrease community exercise prompted Ethereum to fall 45% over the identical interval.
Constancy’s evaluation emphasised that technical metrics and accumulation traits remained steady, supporting mid- and long-term resilience. Ethereum closed the quarter at $2,246, reflecting broad weak point, though valuation metrics instructed potential alternatives for long-term buyers.
Bitcoin consolidates, fundamentals intact
Regardless of short-term volatility, Constancy’s report discovered that Bitcoin’s key technical alerts stay constructive.
The golden cross fashioned in late 2024 was nonetheless intact on the finish of the primary quarter, though the asset traded 4% under its 200-day transferring common.
Moreover, on-chain information confirmed that long-term holders have been accumulating, with illiquid provide rising and alternate balances persevering with to say no, suggesting that buyers have been transferring Bitcoin into self-custody.
Constancy famous that Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Rating, used to measure valuation relative to realized worth, declined however remained impartial, indicating revenue margins had compressed with out triggering a broad selloff.
Equally, the Reserve Danger metric instructed favorable long-term risk-reward situations, supported by macro components comparable to potential Federal Reserve price cuts and institutional adoption.
Miner’s well being additionally remained steady. Though profitability declined in comparison with the final quarter of 2024, miner income stayed above 365-day averages, and hash price progress continued at a wholesome tempo.
The Puell A number of confirmed that mining returns stayed near historic norms, reflecting resilience in mining operations regardless of the April 2024 halving.
Constancy concluded that Bitcoin’s present consolidation section may create alternatives for long-term buyers to build up, with assist ranges close to $86,000 and $88,500 representing vital technical thresholds.
Ethereum faces short-term weak point
Ethereum’s sharp value decline within the first quarter resulted in deteriorating short-term technical alerts. ETH fell under its 200-day and 50-day transferring averages, and a dying cross sample fashioned in early March.
Constancy assigned Ethereum a adverse short-term outlook, reflecting these technical weaknesses and declining community exercise.
Nonetheless, valuation and community fundamentals painted a extra complicated image. Constancy reported that Ethereum’s MVRV Z-Rating entered the “undervalued” zone in March, a historic affiliation with long-term accumulation phases.
The Internet Unrealized Revenue/Loss (NUPL) metric additionally moved into capitulation territory, suggesting present costs have been close to historic lows relative to previous cycles.
Exercise on Ethereum’s base layer confirmed modest declines in new addresses, energetic addresses, and transaction counts in the course of the first quarter, whereas layer 2 transaction volumes fell 11%, marking a break from earlier progress traits.
Constancy famous that upcoming developments such because the Pectra improve, which is able to double blob capability, could possibly be important for reaccelerating community exercise.
Staking participation rebounded modestly after a uncommon decline in 2024’s final quarter, and community issuance dynamics shifted barely inflationary, with an annualized inflation price of 0.63% in the course of the quarter.
Constancy attributed this variation to larger staking participation and decrease transaction charges, which decreased the quantity of ETH burned.
Investor outlook for Q2
For Bitcoin, Constancy sees a impartial short-term surroundings however maintains a optimistic stance over medium- and long-term horizons primarily based on sturdy on-chain information and continued institutional momentum.
The report suggested buyers to watch assist ranges and potential macroeconomic catalysts, comparable to shifts in financial coverage and authorities initiatives.
In the meantime, it warned about Ethereum’s short-term prospects as technical weak point persists. Nonetheless, the agency instructed that present valuation metrics current a lovely entry level for long-term buyers, notably if upcoming community upgrades and enhancements in L2 exercise materialize.
The Constancy report concluded that whereas Bitcoin reveals indicators of stability amid consolidation, Ethereum might supply contrarian worth alternatives for buyers prepared to navigate short-term volatility.
