Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes predicts most layer 1 blockchain tokens will fail aside from Ethereum and Solana.
- He believes preliminary value surges in new layer 1 tasks hardly ever translate to long-term success.
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Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto derivatives change BitMEX, mentioned he expects most layer 1 blockchain cash outdoors Ethereum and Solana to fail, together with Monad, a not too long ago launched layer 1 backed by Coinbase Ventures.
“I believe just about each different L1 in addition to Ethereum or Solana is a zero,” mentioned Hayes, talking in an interview with Altcoin Day by day. “And so they’re not going to do very effectively.”
Hayes predicts Monad’s MON will crash 99% as its valuation is inflated relative to fundamentals, making a deep drawdown seemingly.
“I believe it’s going to be one other bear chain. It’s going to go down 99% as a result of it’s one other excessive FDV, low-flow piece, VC L1,” he added.
MON is buying and selling at roughly $0.037, up 45% from its ICO value of $0.0254, CoinGecko knowledge reveals. The coin has achieved a market capitalization of round $398 million.
In accordance with Hayes, new L1 tasks sometimes expertise an preliminary value surge, pushed by traders hoping to copy early Ethereum positive aspects.
“Each coin will get their first pump. And other people wish to consider within the new L1 as a result of everyone desires to put money into the brand new Ethereum, like they’d have in 2014 when everybody missed it, me included,” Hayes famous, including that preliminary hype doesn’t translate to long-term viability, nonetheless.
When requested which protocols would make up his “magnificent 5” in crypto, Hayes pointed to Ethereum, Solana, Bitcoin, Zcash, and Ethena.
In accordance with knowledge tracked by Lookonchain, Hayes collected 873,671 ENA this week after promoting over $5 million ENA two weeks earlier. He additionally added ZEC amid the latest value rally.
Ethereum stays best choice for establishments, Solana seems for subsequent increase
On Ethereum, Hayes mentioned he believes Ethereum has turn into the selection for institutional adoption of web3. He argued that enormous banks and organizations have realized non-public blockchains don’t supply actual utility, and that public chains are important for safety and significant utilization.
In accordance with Hayes, Ethereum will function the spine for TradFi exercise, with L2 options akin to Arbitrum and Optimism serving to to deal with privateness and scalability wants. He expects Ethereum’s ecosystem to drive the subsequent part of adoption and value development.
Concerning Solana, Hayes famous its robust efficiency and standing because the second-largest public L1, largely due to its earlier rally to meme coin exercise. Nonetheless, he mentioned that meme-driven development has slowed and Solana now wants a brand new catalyst to maintain momentum.
“Meme cash have type of died by way of exercise relative to what it was in type of like 2023 and 2024. Solana wants a brand new trick.” Hayes mentioned. “I don’t know what that new trick is. However once more, it’s the quantity two largest L1. I believe they’ll discover one thing.”
“Will or not it’s sufficient to energy value efficiency larger than Ethereum? I don’t suppose so,” he added.
