Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes suggests Tether is within the early levels of a large interest-rate commerce, betting that Fed cuts will harm Treasury revenue however ship Bitcoin and gold greater.
- He argues {that a} main drop in Bitcoin and gold positions may wipe out Tether’s fairness.
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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes argues that Tether is positioning itself for an upcoming Fed rate-cut cycle by shifting a better share of its reserves into Bitcoin and gold.
Hayes wrote on X on Saturday that Tether’s most up-to-date attestation suggests the agency is making ready for a rate-cut setting, which would scale back returns on Treasuries however may drive up the value of Bitcoin and gold.
Nevertheless, the analyst cautioned {that a} sharp decline in these riskier belongings may pressure Tether’s fairness cushion and reignite long-running questions on USDT’s solvency.
The Tether of us are within the early innings of operating a large rate of interest commerce. How I learn this audit is that they suppose the Fed will lower charges which crushes their curiosity revenue. In response, they’re shopping for gold and $BTC that ought to in principle moon as the value of cash falls.… pic.twitter.com/ZGhQRP4SVF
— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 29, 2025
In accordance with the most recent reserve report, Tether holds round $181 billion in belongings to again USDT. The majority of that is in money and liquid securities, together with Treasury payments, repo, and cash market devices.
Different holdings embrace almost $13 billion in valuable metals, near $10 billion in Bitcoin, and greater than $14 billion in secured loans, together with a number of smaller funding classes.
Tether was not too long ago assigned a “weak” stability ranking by S&P International Rankings after boosting its holdings of riskier belongings, together with Bitcoin, inside its reserves. S&P famous that this strategy will increase the probability of undercollateralization within the occasion of heightened crypto market stress.
In response, Tether mentioned the S&P’s ranking framework is outdated and doesn’t replicate the dimensions of its every day settlement flows.
